Flash-flood warning from the National Weather Service
A traditional monsoon pattern will finally set up over NM for much of next week. Heavy rain producing storms are expected and the potential for flash flooding will increase.
Though storms will develop again this afternoon (Saturday, July 30), increased moisture will arrive as early as Sunday across the southwest mountains, and Monday across the remainder of western and central New Mexico.
The heaviest rains are expected across the northern and western high terrain, though any storm will be capable of producing heavy rain and flash flooding.
The stubborn upper high that has been blocking the return of moisture from the south will finally shift east on Sunday, allowing abundant monsoon moisture to return. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected, some with heavy rain, each day. The most active days will depend on individual upper level disturbances moving northward within the flow.
Confidence is high that heavy rains with the potential for flash flooding will be common nearly each day next week.
- Abundant monsoon moisture will return as early as Sunday and persist through the week.
- Storms will have the potential to produce rainfall rates in excess of 2 inches per hour.
- Slow moving storms will exacerbate the threat for flash flooding, especially Sunday through Tuesday. Storm motions may increase mid to late week.
- As soils become saturated with repeated rounds of precipitation, the threat for flash flooding will increase throughout the week. Wildfire burn scars will be especially susceptible for flash flooding.
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